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The Euro : And its Threat to the Future of Europe
Téléchargement PDF The Euro : And its Threat to the Future of Europe
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Détails sur le produit
Broché: 512 pages
Editeur : Penguin Books Ltd; Édition : 01 (31 juillet 2017)
Langue : Anglais
ISBN-10: 9780141983240
ISBN-13: 978-0141983240
ASIN: 0141983248
Dimensions du produit:
12,9 x 2,2 x 19,8 cm
Moyenne des commentaires client :
3.0 étoiles sur 5
4 commentaires client
Classement des meilleures ventes d'Amazon:
509.742 en Livres (Voir les 100 premiers en Livres)
Livraison rapide.Les livres de Joseph Stiglitz sont toujours pédagogiques. C'est certainement dû à sa grande maîtrise des sujets qu'il traite.Il nous propose une critique implacable de l'Euro (et indirectement, de l'Europe), mais d'un point de vue qui n'est pas du tout populiste.Je recommande ce livre à tous mes amis qui s'intéressent à la politique.
Décevant. Démonstration peu convaincante, beaucoup de répétitions et aucune analyse de ce qui aurait pu se passer sans l'euro. Un livre d'un opposant sans respect du devoir d'analyse objective. Pas digne d'un économiste.
Livre montrant de façon lumineuse les défis que doit envisager l'Europe pour atteindre des niveaux santé sociale nécessaire une vie commune des nations
This book has one central theme. Austerity is bad. Abandoning austerity solves all the problems. The author describes real problems in an interesting way but always comes back to austerity and lack of solidarity as the root causes.The author refers the advice he gave to President Clinton as being quite useful but omits that he did not succeed in convincing the President not to approve the abolishment of the Glass Steagall Act in 1999, a major cause of the great recession. Poor regulation is at least as important as austerityThere is lack of discernment in the continuous reference to the Greek problem instead of to the problems of France and Italy. The future of Europe does not depend on Greece. Greece is a very small country with a great and sad history. Great with their philosophers and sad by continuous wars, occupation by the Turks and Germans and after the World war several periods with military rule. Greece has all the characteristics of a failed state, no tax collection, not even by law of its most important economic sector, populist measures by increasing government employees, accepting a system where different groups like taxi drivers, truck drivers operate monopolies, payment to professionals in cash, and high levels of corruption. Furthermore they presented false statistics when applying for membership to the EU.The real problems are France and Italy with governments that are unable to make the countries more efficient even though the problems are clear. This is not about austerity; this is about poor governance. For example both countries have poor labor management relationship and an inability to convince the citizens to work more. Italy consists of two countries with a productive North and extremely inefficient South. Those are real problems that have to be resolved. That does matter.Another problem is the low level of income in the new Eastern countries. These suffered under Soviet Union influence and the use of a central planning communist economic system. The agricultural sector still employs a large number of people with very low levels of productivity. Germany decided that the standard of living in East Germany should rise to the same Level as in Western Germany. The cost is estimated to be more than one trillion Euros. Western Germany is still subsidizing East Germany. It is totally unrealistic to refer to solidarity implying that the Western countries should subsidize the Eastern Countries as they did East Germany. EU Brussels probably misinformed the Eastern Countries by creating the impression that they could soon catch up with the Western countries.Another real problem is that the European Commission is not delivering enough recognized results. For example they did not recognize the sub prime fraud that originated in the private financial sector in the USA in time. They were as much asleep as the US regulatory authorities.The author is right that monetary union has to be accompanied by or even proceeded by political changes. Also, the EU made the mistake of not changing its architecture sufficiently when it moved from 6 to 27 members. The author is right that the European Union has to improve its performance and that solidarity is important. This requires better leadership performance especially of EU Brussels and in the member countries. EU Brussels has very little executive authority. Almost all of the execution is carried out by the nation states. EU Brussels has to become outstanding in developing and proposing practical solutions adapted to the needs of the nation states that are perceived as important and useful.One simplification would be to move to multi-speed integration within the EU. By the way this has also been suggested by Giscard' d Estaing and Helmut Schmidt, former heads of State of France and Germany in 2014. This will be easier after Brexit and should be considered straight away.
There are two Joseph Stiglitzes: the brilliant economist and the repetitive polemicist.Unlike “The Price of Inequality,†a book wrapped by Stiglitz the rambling, Nobel-flashing celebrity blogger around the nucleus of a very incisive article written by Stiglitz the brilliant economist, this forward-planned, structured book is 100% the work of the brilliant economist. To be sure, he is starting to sound a lot like his alter ego, but the transformation is far from complete and what we have here is a genuinely exhaustive, if not amazingly deep, treatise that has a beginning, a middle and an end.The book is divided in five sections (that are however grouped in four parts):• First a “you are here†section that lays out the author’s views of where we stand and how we got here• Second, a three-part expo on (i) how currency unions are meant to work, (ii) where the Euro diverges from this ideal and (iii) the (negative) role of the ECB• Third, a long whine against the Troika’s work in Greece and (less so) Ireland• Fourth, the Stiglitz manifesto of how to (semi-centrally, you have been warned!) run an economy, mischievously mis-branded “Creating a Eurozone that worksâ€â€¢ Fifth, a daring and provocative “what next†sectionA quick read through chapter 9 (the manifesto) may be the best starting point for the reader. Read that and you will calibrate how much to the right you are of the author (or to the left for the 5% of the human population who are thus inclined). Agree or disagree, you are now reading the book with the author’s ideal world in mind and that’s how you will get the most out of it.The bits I thought were unparalleled in the literature were the section entitled “Internal devaluations and external imbalances†(pp. 97 to 110) that nestles inside the already very strong chapter on “When can a single currency ever work,†the entire chapter on how the ECB was conceived, how it thinks and whom it serves (brilliant, brilliant) and the final section of the book that takes you through how we can go about executing on “more Europe†or “less Europe,†as opposed to muddling through to assured destruction.That said, the final section will make your stomach turn if you are German, and you will be right to object. If Europe was the only economy on earth, I can see how perhaps Germany could pay its workers more / restrict its trade surplus / whatever. I’m not saying I buy it, I’m just saying I can see it. But it’s competing with Japan, China and South Korea, to say nothing of the US. Not Italy. Not Spain. Not even France any more. Most certainly not Greece. I’d say it has the most luxurious setup for its workers from all of its competitors. Hell, Angie picked up 20% of workers’ wage bills at the depths of the crisis to keep them employed. And the unions have board seats in most major employers, as often does the state. Stiglitz knows all this (and it bothers him when it comes to German companies buying Greek state assets, for example) but is selective about when he remembers it.Also, the book sets the ambitious goal of explaining that Europe is suffering from poor policy design rather than from having muddled through too long without engaging in structural reform. This the author fails to do, entirely. The treatment of structural reforms is not worthy of a high-school essay.I won’t even bother going into the arguments, just count the number of pages dedicated to looking at structural reforms and draw your conclusions.But I’ll cite two examples where the author’s judgement on specifics is almost as awful as his judgement on macroeconomics is brilliant:1. The author sides with the pharmacists in my country (full disclosure, my mom’s a Greek pharmacist) who are plainly one of many extractive agents in an economy that is full of extractive agents. Suffice it to say Greek pharmacists went on strike, citing the Hipporcratic oath, when the troika threatened to break their stranglehold on baby formula. You heard that right, it was (and may still be, I’ve stopped following) illegal for a supermarket in Greece to sell baby formula. You’ve got to pay up and buy it at the pharmacist. Just an example.2. The author mentions more than once that George Papandreou was crusading against the press-owning oligarchs. Point of information: George Papandreou was a third-generation prime minister. Both his grandfather George and his father Andreas have served as prime minister, multiple times. Look it up on Wikipedia, some crazy percentage of the time since WWII the prime minister or the head of the opposition in my country was called Papandreou. If you think a political clan can maintain that position and not be in cahoots with the oligarchs you know nothing about Greece. You probably know nothing about planet earth. Or you are blinded a bit by your views, perhaps…So this book is not without its foibles. Overall, however, it does a tremendous job of laying out a view and it is the only book currently in print that covers so many facets. And it is not afraid to shout from the rooftops that the emperor has no clothes.It makes excellent background reading for my favorite book on the Euro, the one by the FT’s Martin Sandbu. Sandbu goes deep, and if you want the skinny on his “straw man†you’ve got it right here!
Today, many of the countries of Europe (France, Greece, Italy, Spain, U.K.) have an output/capita (adjusted for inflation) well below that prior to the 'Great Recession of 2008.'The Euro was supposed to enhance commercial ties, erode borders and foster a spirit of collective interest - partly through economies of scale and comparative advantage. But in the 17 years since that currency came into existence, it has instead reinvigorated conflicts and a spirit of distrust while making economic inequality worse and dividing Europe into adversarial debtor and creditor camps. Interest rates on Greek bonds and several other Eurozone countries has soared, peaking at 22.5% for Greece in 2012. The migrant crisis and terrorist threats have taken front stage - despite the euro supposedly bring about closer integration.Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Lucas declared in 2003 that the 'central problem of depression prevention has been solved.' Market fundamentalists believe that if the government would simply ensure that inflation was low and stable, markets would ensure growth and prosperity for all - this is especially true within the Eurozone's dominant power, Germany. Greece is now in a depression, with half its youth unemployed, the extreme right has made large gains in France, a majority of those elected to Barcelona's regional parliament support independence from Spain, and large parts of Europe have a lower GDP/capita lower than before the 2008 global financial crisis. Even what Europe celebrates as a success is actually a failure - eg. Spain's unemployment rate has fallen from 26% in 2013 to 20% at the beginning of 2016 - but nearly half of young people remain unemployed and that would be even higher if so many young workers hadn't left to look elsewhere for jobs. Why?Stiglitz's answer is that the 1992 Euro adoption failed provide support for the institutions that would make it work - specifically, the fault lies in currency pegs,' where the value of one country's currency is fixed relative to another or relative to a 'commodity.Continuing, Stiglitz contends that our depression at the end of the 19th century was linked to the gold standard - with no new large discoveries of gold, its scarcity led to a fall in the prices of ordinary goods in terms of gold. This made it increasingly difficult for farmers in America to pay back their debts. The gold standard is also widely blamed for deepening and prolonging the Great Depression - those that abandoned the gold standard early recovered more quickly.In spite of this, Europe decided to tie itself together with a single currency, creating within Europe the same kind of rigidity that the gold standard had inflicted on the world. Worse yet, the structure of the Eurozone built in certain ideas about what was required for economic success - that the central bank should focus on inflation, ignoring unemployment, growth, and stability as well, as does the Federal Reserve.Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Spain, and Cyprus were also importing more than they were exporting, with the resulting insufficiency of domestic demand depressing the economy. One needed to make import-substituting activities more productive and encourage consumption of local goods. In Greece, for example, the opposite - Greece was ordered to change milk labeling so that 11-day-old milk from northern Europe could still be called 'fresh' and undercut Greek producers.Why were Europe's leaders even focusing on milk, the size of loaves of bread, and what OTC drugs could be sold outside of pharmacies as Greece's GDP plummeted about 25%? Stiglitz observes that special interests, eg. big dairy companies of Holland, appear to be behind the reforms, and the chairman of the Eurogroup is the Dutch Finance minister. Stiglitz also notes that hardly any of the money loaned Greece went to help the Greeks, but rather private-sector creditors - German and French banks.Germany holds itself out as a success - an example of what other countries should do. Its economy has grown by 6.8% since 2007 - just 0.8%/year, a number that normally would be considered close to failing. (The U.S. growth rate in the same period averaged 1.2%.) Stiglitz also points that prior to the crisis (early 2000s), Germany adopted reforms that aggressively cut into ordinary workers' safety net, especially those at the bottom. Inequality increased, and real wages stagnated. Germany is a 'success' only by comparison with other nations in the Eurozone. Regardless, its strategy cannot be universally followed - based in part on strong trade surpluses.Stiglitz also contends that the European Central Bank's monetary policy and the macroeconomic policies imposed by the official creditors on crisis countries have been largely responsible for the economic damages done. Tightening monetary policy during the credit crunch following the 2008 crisis, along with the imposition of sharp fiscal deficit cuts threw the Eurozone into a self-inflected second recession in 2011-12. In Greece, for example, measures intended to lower the debt burden have left it more burdened than in 2010 - the debt-to-GDP ratio has increased from 117% when the crisis began to 177% today. Many Germans insist it was hyperinflation that led to Hitler, and so tend to support central bank policies that guard against that problem rather than the more worrisome spector of joblessness - thus, Germany is the problem, not Greece.Sitglitz endorses significant debt write-downs, raising both taxes and spending by the same amount (Stiglitz blames a hidden agenda of downsizing government for the latter), and banning excessive trade deficits. Instead, he believes the Eurozone will further unravel. He also criticizes the European Common Bank for 'resisting quantative easing,' yet argues that the most important effect of QE has been contributing to 'growing inequality,' which he says hurts growthBottom-Line, per Stiglitz: The Euro has failed to achieve either of its two principal goals of prosperity and political integration. European countries now view each other with distrust and anger.
Rarely do I ever leave a book unfinished. This was one of those rare occurrences.There are obvious problems with lack of cohesion and structure around the Euro. Those are addressed, but frankly, it doesn’t take a Nobel laureate to identify them.The majority of the book is a one-sided ideological rant utilizing a lot of opinion stated as fact. Further, the book is rife with glaring omissions and contradictions. These are dismissed with a quick “yeah, but†(i.e. quickly shifting blame from Greece’s profligacy to pretty much anyone ideologically different from Stiglitz). And, not for nothing, it is written in a remarkably self-assured tone for someone who once predicted Fannie Mae was incapable of default. Stiglitz sounds like he still hasn’t gained an appreciation for variables unseen or not yet considered.I’m no “neoliberal†(as Stiglitz derisively calls anyone he disagrees with), but I do appreciate a fair, objective assessment of the facts, the knowns and the unknowns, when I read books on science and economics. In that regard, this book fails miserably.
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